In May last year, a survey was conducted on the response of Metro Manila mayors to the COVID-19 pandemic. Valenzuela City mayor Rex gatchalian topped the survey with 92% approval followed by Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto (83%), Manila Mayor Isko Moreno (76%), and Marikina Mayor Marcelino Teodoro (69%)

In a December 2020 survey, Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte topped approval ratings at 85%, followed by Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto (82%) and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso (77%). Before this, Belmonte received much criticism over her government’s response to the pandemic.

Following each survey, so-called praise releases flew around social media and other channels propping up these politicians, suggesting they be the next Philippine president. Such clamor has been linked to moves to oust President Rodrigo Duterte or at least to oppose him.

Question is, are any of these politicians worth this kind of praise?

This question is best answered by looking at COVID-19 statistics on the LGUs taken from the Department of Health’s online COVID-19 tracker. Statistics cited are based on March 10-11 data.

While most people tend to look at the total number of cases, deaths and recoveries, other statistical aspects deserve a closer look when one is using them to judge the LGUs’ pandemic response.

One is the tabulated active cases. Just this March 10, Taguig logged the lowest active case rate among Metro Manila cities with 20 cases for every 100,000 in a population. Navotas was the highest with 224.

On recovery rate (also in terms of no. per 100,000), Pateros has the highest at 94.6% followed by Muntinlupa at 93.6%, San Juan at 92.5%, and Taguig at 92.1%. In comparison, Caloocan has 91.3%, Quezon City has 90.1%, Pasig has 89.1%, and Manila has 88.1%.

Third is attack rate, the incidence rate at which people contract severe conditions such as diseases. The percentage cited represents how many per 100,000 get infected daily. In Metro Manila, the COVID attack rate is led by San Juan at 3.59% (3.59 per 100,000) followed by Pateros with 3.4%, and Pasay with 3.38%. Quezon City has 1.6%, Manila 1.8%, Pasig 2.01%, and Taguig 2.02%. The city with the lowest attack rate is Caloocan with 1.06% followed by Las Piñas with 1.37%.

In terms of fatality rate, Pasig leads at 2.7% followed by San Juan and Valenzuela at 2.4% each and Malabon, Manila and Caloocan at 2.3%. The lowest are Taguig and Pasay with 1.2%.

The premise here is that the said COVID-19 rates are a better basis for measuring a local government’s performance than surveys that are based on opinion.

Leaders whose cities or municipalities had the lowest attack rate and death rate and the highest recovery rate should be the most lauded if anybody is to be lauded.

If we are to follow this, Caloocan and Taguig are candidates to receive the most praise. Other cities whose leaders have been hailed as ‘the next president’ are apparently lagging behind.

The takeaway from this is that surveys are more like popularity contests than actual performance measures. They are less likely to reflect the reality on the ground. Surveys after all take the opinion of just a small sample of a large populace. The possibility for such a sample to be inaccurate is still there. COVID-19 data from the DOH however cannot afford to be inaccurate.

As a result, speculation remains rife that surveys on politician approval ratings are more akin to “praise releases” or public relations efforts rather than actual representations of public sentiment. Such efforts are presumably intended not to represent but influence public opinion.

It has been pointed out that the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic will be a factor in voter choices in the 2022 elections. For example, a mayor seeking re-election or who is propping a relative to take his place will be judged by their performance when responding to the pandemic. Let us hope that voters have learned and will choose their candidates based on performance and not on popularity.