Will ABS-CBN get its needed franchise and go back on the air again? There is always a chance, but from the very start its chances were slim to none. And every day that passes it’s getting closer to none.

The fact is, it’s all up to President Rodrigo Duterte and his plans for the future. And he has made it very clear the moment he won the presidency ABS-CBN will not get its franchise renewed.

Yes, if by some reason ABS-CBN overcomes its obstacles – gets its Franchise Bill from the House of representatives, gets a counterpart Bill from the Senate, a final Bill is hammered out in the bicameral conference committee, and it lands on the president’s desk for signature – there is still no guarantee that the president will sign it.

Of course, that’s still part of the process. The president can veto the Bill, but it will go back to congress which has the option to override the veto by a 2/3 vote and make it Law. Yeah, right, like that’s going to happen with this president and his enabler congress.

Then again, the president can just choose to ignore the Bill on his desk it and let it pass into law within 30 days, which makes him save face. Hell, he can sign it anyway and still save face, looking like the hero of the day.

Yet by that time it will be too late the hero. The basic principle with congressional franchises is “you lose it if you don’t use it.” The thing is ABS-CBN’s franchise had lapsed – expired – and that franchise is for a state-owned limited resource: frequencies or airwaves if you will. So, the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC), chief regulator of these frequencies can grant it to other existing franchise holders or those making a beeline for their own franchises, say Dennis Uy, Apollo Quiboloy, the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC)… or even your neighborhood ham radio operator if he happens to hold a congressional franchise.

So, ABS-CBN could have its franchise, but its frequencies will be gone. And they have to stand in the back of the line at the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) for their frequency allocation behind all those others who have been waiting for years with their franchise in hand but still no frequencies.

Then what’s a company like ABS-CBN to do? Will it just roll over any play dead? It can. It has enough real estate, equipment and other assets it can liquidate and pay off its people and debts and even leave a respectable amount of change for its owners and public stockholders. As one guy said pointing to the station’s massive broadcast tower: “ilang kilong bakal kaya yan sa scrap?”

But my take is that ABS-CBN will take a long hard look at itself and move forward. It will bite the sour apple: retrench workers, scale down operations, humble itself before debtors and stockholders. It will liquidate assets that have become useless and even a burden to keep and use the proceeds to restart life.

It’s a hard choice to leave the life of a Megamall and restart life as a palengke stall. But that’s where hope lies. Digital transformation, social media engagement and growth, internet TV, independent content production for regional and international markets… there are so many ways to project ABS-CBN’s rebirth and evolution. They are doing it now, with a whopping 8 million viewers when it was first closed down last May 5. Of course, it’s down from 80 million, and with its cable exposure online exposures it’s way lower. But it’s still not a thing to scoff at.

The Facebook page ABS-CBN has 20 million plus Likes, while the page ABS-CBN News has 18 million plus Likes. In Youtube the ABS-CBN Entertainment channel has 28 million subscribers while the ABS-CBN News Channel has 9.61 million subscribers. Plus, it has its iWant TV platform and may create even more channels and portals. In this online world, content is king. And they have a lot.

These numbers are something to build on. It is enough for its supporters to march forward and its enemies to tremble in fear.

There are more ways than one to be “the Philippines’ Largest Network” and “In the Service of the Filipino”. And that, Kapamilya, will be the new normal.