OPINION
Ed Javier
Marcos' Magic 12 - Who Will Claim The Final Senate Spots?
OCTA Research’s “Tugon ng Masa (TNM)” Third Quarter 2024 survey revealed the top 15 contenders for the 2025 senatorial elections. Leading the pack are ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo and broadcaster Ben Tulfo, who tied for first and second place with 60% and 57% voter preference, respectively.
Following them are former Senate President Tito Sotto (50%), Senator Bong Go (49%), and former Senator Ping Lacson (44%). The rest of the top 15 include familiar names like Senators Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., Pia Cayetano, Imee Marcos, Lito Lapid, Francis Tolentino, Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, former Senator Manny Papcquiao, former President Rodrigo Duterte, DILG Secretary Benhur Abalos, and Dr. Willie Ong.
But the bigger question now is: who will be included in the magic 12 of President Marcos Jr.'s slate?
The candidates in this group will enjoy a huge advantage due to the vast resources, network, and backing of the administration during this midterm election. The fight for a spot in BBM’s slate is not just about winnability but also about political relationships and strategic alliances.
Let’s go through the process of elimination. Although the Tulfo brothers are ranking high, we believe only one Tulfo is likely to be included to avoid vote-splitting and to allow room for other candidates.
Go and Dela Rosa, who are the closest advisers of former President Duterte, will probably not be included due to the Duterte's current political rift with the Marcos administration. Obviously, the same is true with the former President. Dr. Willie Ong, despite being an excellent candidate, may not be able to run due to his recent illness.
This narrows the list down to 10 candidates most likely to be part of Marcos' slate, leaving two coveted positions open in the final lineup.
The contenders in the next tier, ranked 14th to 26th in the OCTA survey, include former Senator Gringo Honasan, the Duterte brothers (Baste and Pulong), Makati Mayor Abby Binay,
former senator Franklin Drilon, former Senator Richard Gordon, TV host Willie Revillame, and Camille Villar.
Given the rift between the Duterte family and the Marcos administration, it is unlikely that the Duterte brothers will be included. Former Senators Drilon and Gordon; and Revillane's political plans are also uncertain.
This leaves Honasan, Binay, and Villar in the race for the final two slots in the Marcos, Jr slate.
If winnability, experience and political relationships are the main bases for inclusion, Honasan, currently ranked no. 14, may have an edge over the two women. Honasan, a four-term senator, colonel and former cabinet member, brings extensive experience to the table.
His military background, including his role in defense and security, is particularly relevant given the current geopolitical tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
His expertise in defense matters could be pivotal for the Marcos administration, which will need strong leadership on security issues throughout its term.
Additionally, Honasan’s close ties with former Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, now the Presidential Legal Adviser, will ensure a valuable legislative ally in Honasan. His experience and established political connections make him a strong candidate for slot number 11.
The final slot is likely to be contested between Binay and Villar.
Binay, a lawyer and well-experienced politician, has a notable track record as Makati’s chief executive for the past nine years. Under her leadership, Makati has seen significant advancements, such as the expansion of healthcare services and the development of key infrastructure projects.
For example, her administration has overseen the growth of the city’s medical facilities, including the enhancement of the Ospital ng Makati, which has improved access to quality healthcare for residents.
Villar, a political newbie, benefits from her powerful family network. Her mother, Senator Cynthia Villar, and her brother, Senator Mark Villar, are both incumbent senators.
Her father, Manny Villar, a former Senate President and current head of the Nacionalista Party, has a strategic alliance with the President’s party, Partido Federal. This strong family backing and political influence will be her significant assets.
Their success will depend on how well they use their trump cards in the remaining time. With the filing of candidacies already scheduled for the first week of October, the key question remains: who will get the last slot?
Following them are former Senate President Tito Sotto (50%), Senator Bong Go (49%), and former Senator Ping Lacson (44%). The rest of the top 15 include familiar names like Senators Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., Pia Cayetano, Imee Marcos, Lito Lapid, Francis Tolentino, Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, former Senator Manny Papcquiao, former President Rodrigo Duterte, DILG Secretary Benhur Abalos, and Dr. Willie Ong.
But the bigger question now is: who will be included in the magic 12 of President Marcos Jr.'s slate?
The candidates in this group will enjoy a huge advantage due to the vast resources, network, and backing of the administration during this midterm election. The fight for a spot in BBM’s slate is not just about winnability but also about political relationships and strategic alliances.
Let’s go through the process of elimination. Although the Tulfo brothers are ranking high, we believe only one Tulfo is likely to be included to avoid vote-splitting and to allow room for other candidates.
Go and Dela Rosa, who are the closest advisers of former President Duterte, will probably not be included due to the Duterte's current political rift with the Marcos administration. Obviously, the same is true with the former President. Dr. Willie Ong, despite being an excellent candidate, may not be able to run due to his recent illness.
This narrows the list down to 10 candidates most likely to be part of Marcos' slate, leaving two coveted positions open in the final lineup.
The contenders in the next tier, ranked 14th to 26th in the OCTA survey, include former Senator Gringo Honasan, the Duterte brothers (Baste and Pulong), Makati Mayor Abby Binay,
former senator Franklin Drilon, former Senator Richard Gordon, TV host Willie Revillame, and Camille Villar.
Given the rift between the Duterte family and the Marcos administration, it is unlikely that the Duterte brothers will be included. Former Senators Drilon and Gordon; and Revillane's political plans are also uncertain.
This leaves Honasan, Binay, and Villar in the race for the final two slots in the Marcos, Jr slate.
If winnability, experience and political relationships are the main bases for inclusion, Honasan, currently ranked no. 14, may have an edge over the two women. Honasan, a four-term senator, colonel and former cabinet member, brings extensive experience to the table.
His military background, including his role in defense and security, is particularly relevant given the current geopolitical tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
His expertise in defense matters could be pivotal for the Marcos administration, which will need strong leadership on security issues throughout its term.
Additionally, Honasan’s close ties with former Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, now the Presidential Legal Adviser, will ensure a valuable legislative ally in Honasan. His experience and established political connections make him a strong candidate for slot number 11.
The final slot is likely to be contested between Binay and Villar.
Binay, a lawyer and well-experienced politician, has a notable track record as Makati’s chief executive for the past nine years. Under her leadership, Makati has seen significant advancements, such as the expansion of healthcare services and the development of key infrastructure projects.
For example, her administration has overseen the growth of the city’s medical facilities, including the enhancement of the Ospital ng Makati, which has improved access to quality healthcare for residents.
Villar, a political newbie, benefits from her powerful family network. Her mother, Senator Cynthia Villar, and her brother, Senator Mark Villar, are both incumbent senators.
Her father, Manny Villar, a former Senate President and current head of the Nacionalista Party, has a strategic alliance with the President’s party, Partido Federal. This strong family backing and political influence will be her significant assets.
Their success will depend on how well they use their trump cards in the remaining time. With the filing of candidacies already scheduled for the first week of October, the key question remains: who will get the last slot?
Sep 20, 2024
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