UPLB Math Prof: Cases may still spike in coming days

University of the Philippines Los Baños mathematics professor Dr. Virgilio P. Sison says the average number of daily cases may increase in the coming days.

Sison's graphs using the latest Department of Health (DOH) statistics show a distinctly sharp uptrend in the past week. “The previously declared wave peak of 538 on March 31 has been dwarfed by the spikes during this period,” he explained.

Sison warns that community transmission is still happening in Metro Manila and other critical areas. 

“Clearly, we do not see a completely flattened curve as the country still needs to push the curve down further, that is, to bring the daily cases down to zero, but expectedly, this will take a longer period of time,” he added  

The professor noted that current DOH data may not accurately reflect the actual extent of infection in the country for two reasons. First is the delay in reporting of cases. 

“As of May 30, a total of 23,843 unique individuals have in fact been tested positive for Covid-19, but only 17,224 of them have been validated, which gives a backlog of 6,619 unvalidated cases,” said Sison.  

The second reason is limited testing. 

“The total number of individuals who were tested is 318,356, which is only 0.29% of the national population. However, the report of the DOH shows there are 841,752 available tests remaining which indicates that when the process is enhanced and accelerated the health system, through the various accredited testing facilities, can test up to 1,160,108 individuals or close to 1.1% of the national population,” Sison added. 

His graphs as of May 31 show only the number of confirmed and validated Covid-19 cases as reported by the Department of Health (DOH). The first graph shows the daily new cases. The second and third graphs give the logarithmic trendlines based on averages.