Chinese aggression seen to slow down South China Sea code talks

Maritime experts say China’s recent aggressive actions in the South China Sea amid the COVID-19 pandemic may slow down talks on the proposed Code of Conduct (COC).

 

In an online briefing hosted by the US embassy in the Philippines, analysts said negotiations for the COC may be affected by the recent sinking of a Vietnamese vessel by a Chinese Coast Guard ship in the Paracels as well as Beijing’s unilateral declaration of new territorial districts in the disputed waters.

Dr. Hung Son Nguyen, Director General and Head Institute for the South China Sea at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam said, “now things look even gloomier given what is happening in the South China Sea right now.”

Both Vietnam and the Philippines protested the Chinese Coast Guard’s sinking of the Vietnamese vessel on April 2 and its establishment of two administrative zones in the contested area. 

Nguyen said the only way for the Code Of Conduct process to pick up is for China to convince ASEAN states that it is willing to work with them.

“To salvage the code of conduct process, China needs to look at its behavior, its activities in the South China Sea and show its willingness and political will to create a conducive environment for ASEAN states to be convinced that the code of conduct is still viable,” Nguyen said. 

Dr. Jay Batongbacal, University of the Philippines’ Director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea fears a possible deadlock in the negotiations unless parties come up with other measures.

“States may not be amenable as before or open or cooperative as before especially on matters related to explorations, fishing, military encounters - all of these events in recent months will play into concerns of the diplomats when they decide to resume negotiations,” he said. 

 “If that kind of negative trend of assertion continues, then by the time this is over and diplomatic activities resume, we could see all this building up into a kind of backlash when things resume.”

 

Sumathy Permal of the Maritime Institute of Malaysia said ASEAN and China should ensure that the process of talks on the Code Of Conduct continues despite delays in the meetings.

“ASEAN should stay together to come up with one voice to try to resolve the disputes and include regional arrangements for maritime protection in the waters,“ he said.

Director of Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Greg Poling meanwhile said, “things don't look good as it is at present.”

Poling explained that news has been universally bad for the last three months or so especially with the COVID-19 pandemic happening.

He reminds claimant countries as well as the international community that they are losing the South China Sea. He, however, said the countries may avert this if they take action now.