AdvocatesTV • April 30, 2020
UPLB Math Prof on flattening the curve: “We’re not exactly there yet”
University of the Philippines Los Baños mathematics professor Dr. Virgilio P. Sison says a general downtrend in COVID-19 cases is possible if the daily cases fall and remain below acceptable levels steadily in the next 20 days.
“Still, however, we're not exactly there yet,” he said in an email.
Sison based his analysis on his own charts using figures on Covid cases, recoveries, and deaths in the country from March 15 to April 28, 2020.
The Duterte administration imposed quarantine restrictions lasting until May 15, 2020 in order to contain the disease. The administration’s declared goal was to flatten the curve. This means a decline in the number of cases as represented in a line graph until it reaches zero.
Sison continues to attribute the relatively lower number of daily cases compared to other countries to the quarantine restrictions. “The numbers could have been much higher without mitigation.”
He also warns against prematurely lifting all quarantine restrictions. “The decision to extend the ECQ to May 15 in critical areas is well founded. A next wave might occur if control measures are lifted prematurely, just like what happened in other countries,” he said.
The government on April 30 announced plans and guidelines for the transition from ECQ to GCQ (general community quarantine) after May 15. Certain restrictions on movement and business are expected to be relaxed at this point.
The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team had estimated confirmed cases to peak at approximately 140,000 to 550,000 people infected in Metro Manila (both detected and undetected) by end of April to June.
As of the afternoon of April 30, statistics stand at 8,488 total confirmed cases, 1,043 recovered, 568 deaths and 6,877 active cases.
